Analysis of the Possibilities of Energy Supply to Consumers in Cold Conditions During Large-Scale Emergency Installations in the Gas Industry

The article presents the main components of the methodological approach to the analysis of the possibilities of supplying final types of energy to consumers in the event of a loss of performance of critical facilities of the Russian gas industry in conditions of cooling in the territories of the federal districts. The principle of choosing a territorial section for analyzing the situation with a simultaneous increase in demand for fuel and energy resources is described. An algorithm for conducting research is given. Research is carried out by modeling the work of the country’s fuel and energy complex during the period of the average day of January in the conditions of a peak-increasing demand for thermal energy in the territories of federal districts. At the same time, the cooling is modeled in turn for each of the federal districts in the zone of operation of the Unified Gas Supply System of Russia. An analysis of the possibilities of meeting the demand for final types of energy in the constituent entities of the Russian Federation is carried out for all key scenarios of cooling and loss of efficiency of critical gas industry facilities. The principles of modeling the situation with the supply of final types of energy to consumers in these situations are shown. The most vulnerable regions under the analyzed conditions are identified. The conclusion is made about the need for a balanced approach to determining the optimal degree of dominance of natural gas in the fuel and energy balance of the regions, taking into account the existing opportunities for its supply in the conditions of large-scale emergencies in the gas industry.